ORLANDO, July 2, 2025 — Florida’s economy remains on solid footing despite rising threats—from hurricane season to Capitol Hill chaos—according to University of Central Florida economist Sean Snaith in his latest quarterly forecast.
“There are storms brewing that could shake up both the U.S. and Florida economies,” Snaith says. “But the Sunshine State, once again, is better positioned than most to weather what’s coming.”
Thanks to years of robust tax revenue, Florida has built a $4.4 billion rainy-day fund that could help cushion the impact of an active storm season, Snaith says. But the longer-term concern, he explains, is the fragile homeowners insurance market, which has increasingly made housing affordability a major challenge.
“If a major hurricane hits, it could send insurance costs even higher,” says Snaith, the director of UCF’s Institute for Economic Forecasting. “That’s a tough blow for a housing market already stretched by high prices and elevated premiums.”
Political risk is also on the radar. “The fallout from the GOP’s tax and spending cut bill might not hit us right away,” Snaith adds, “but continued inaction on the national debt could jeopardize future funding, especially for infrastructure Florida needs to keep growing.”
Global tensions aren’t helping. Conflict in the Middle East could disrupt oil supplies and shipping lanes, delivering economic shocks even if they don’t tip us into recession, Snaith says.
Despite all these headwinds, Snaith says the state’s economic outlook remains positive: “Florida will keep growing. The question is how smoothly we can steer through the hazards ahead.”
Additional highlights from Snaith’s four-year Florida forecast include:
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From 2025-28, Florida’s economy, as measured by Real Gross State Product, will expand at an average annual rate of 1.8%. Real Gross State Product will decelerate during the economic slowdown as growth will slow to 1.7% in 2025, 1.8% in 2026, then to 1.7% in 2027, and then rise to 2.0% in 2028.
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Payroll job growth in Florida will continue to decelerate as the economy remains essentially at full employment. After year-over-year growth of 5.7% in 2022, growth was 3.4% in 2023 but will slow to 1.8% in 2025 and will drift lower to 0.5% by 2027 before rising to 0.7% in 2028. Job growth will outperform the national labor market the entire time.
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Labor force growth in Florida will average 1.0% from 2025-28. After growing 2.0% in 2025, growth will slow to 0.6% in 2028 alongside slower economic growth.
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The slowing U.S. economy pushed the unemployment rate up to 3.3% in 2024, and it will drift slightly higher to 3.7% in 2025 and rise to 4.2% by 2028. All the while the unemployment rate will average 0.7 points below our forecast for the U.S. economy.
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Housing starts have felt headwinds from higher mortgage and insurance rates. Total starts were 193,700 in 2022—before higher mortgage rates and a slowing economy started a deceleration that will slow starts to 163,053 in 2025. From this point, starts will remain relatively steady before drifting higher to 165,391 in 2028.
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Real personal income growth will average 2.9% during 2025-28. Following an inflation-driven contraction in 2022, growth will be 3.4% in 2028. Florida’s average growth will be 0.5 percentage points higher than the national rate over the same four-year period.
