ORLANDO, Fla. (Dec. 18, 2025) — As the year winds down, Florida’s economy is shifting from a sprint to a jog, but it’s still moving forward.
That’s the message from University of Central Florida economist Sean Snaith, who released his annual holiday-themed ‘Twas the Florida Forecast Before Christmas alongside the latest Florida forecast, covering trends statewide and throughout the Sunshine State’s 25 metro areas.
The outlook shows the state continuing to grow while settling into a more sustainable pace after several years of outsized gains.
“The speed has changed, not the direction,” said Snaith, director of UCF’s Institute for Economic Forecasting. “Florida isn’t running out of gas. We’re just easing off the accelerator.”
The forecast projects Florida will continue to outperform the U.S. economy through 2028, even as growth moderates.
Cooling, Still Competitive
Snaith’s Florida forecast shows growth easing as hiring slows and borrowing costs remain elevated. Even so, Florida’s labor market remains a source of stability, with unemployment expected to stay near full employment and below the national rate through 2028.
Hiring has cooled, but layoffs have not surged, and job growth is expected to continue, just at a slower pace. As Snaith puts it in the holiday forecast, “Businesses continue to slow down their hiring, but the good news is that they’ve not increased their firing.”
A Holiday Forecast with a Familiar Twist
Now a seasonal tradition, Snaith’s holiday forecast uses humor and verse to take stock of the forces shaping Florida’s economy, from inflation and credit card debt to housing affordability, artificial intelligence, hurricanes that never came, and the occasional football disappointment.
Read the full poem here (page 6).
Additional Highlights from the Florida Forecast
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Florida’s economy is expected to grow at about 2.4 percent a year through 2028, continuing to outperform the national economy.
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By 2028, Florida’s economy is projected to exceed $2.1 trillion, underscoring the state’s continued expansion even as growth slows.
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Job growth is easing as Florida operates near full employment, with hiring slowing from about 1 percent to roughly half a percent by 2028 — still outperforming the national labor market.
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The unemployment rate is expected to drift toward 4 percent, remaining about half a point below the forecasted national average.
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Housing activity is cooling, with annual housing starts falling from around 162,000 in 2025 to about 151,000 by 2028, reflecting higher mortgage and insurance costs.
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Personal income growth will average just over 3 percent and run faster than the national average through 2028.
